FOREIGN POLICY AND MILITARY INVOLVEMENT Case Study: Russia-Sudan Relationship

It would not be justified to say that Sudan is important to many great powers only because of its resource-rich lands. Sudan also stands unique because of its geopolitical importance and of its geographic location. A country located on the shores of the Red Sea, with connection to both the Arabian and Mediterranean Seas proposing a very base land to all superpowers. Despite all the resources available and perfectly located, geostrategically Sudan has not been able to exploit these advantages in true letter and spirit. There may be many reasons for it but the biggest can be a lack of sincere leadership and a fair political system acting in the best nation’s interest. Therefore, any strategic decisions made and foreign policies implemented have shown zero sum towards its sovereignty and prosperity; allowing foreign military interference directly or indirectly.

Jurnal Diplomasi Pertahanan, Volume 9, Nomor 1, 2023E-ISSN 2746 implementation. Subsequently it would discuss the International Environment. And how these two have resulted in Russian Military involvement in Sudan. Here USA and regional players would be briefly discussed; however main focus would be Russia as International Actor. Russian Interests would be discussed in detail along with its Military involvement in Sudan. International/External factors would be discussed within the role of International Actors. After briefly analyzing the Sudan's FP action again, the article would conclude the study.

ACTORS PROCESSES ISSUES
• State Actors

Importance of Sudan.
It would not be justified to say that Sudan is important for many great powers only because of its resource rich lands. Sudan also stands unique because its geopolitical importance because of its geographic location.

Irony for Sudan.
Despite all the resources available and perfectly located geostrategically Sudan has not been able to exploit these advantages in true letter and spirit. There may be many reasons to it but the biggest can be lack of sincere leadership and fair political system acting in the best nation's interest. Therefore, any strategic decisions made and foreign policies implemented have shown zero sum towards its sovereignty and prosperity; allowing foreign military interference directly or indirectly.

Intervention.
Understanding Mediterranean, at the crossroads of three continents, is a tense region with significant geopolitical issues: • Antagonism between Arabs and Europeans, • Competition between powers, colonialism, control of the straits and the Suez Canal.
• It remains a zone of conflict for big countries, and distant powers (the United States and Russia) always remain interested as investors ; (Nations Online, n.d.) All these factors contribute to the importance of Sudan in this region.

Natural Resources and Resource Management.
As Sudan's main source of wealth, its natural resources are a focal point for competition and conflict. Resource conflicts are often the result of a growing population, climate Jurnal Diplomasi Pertahanan, Volume 9, Nomor 1, 2023 E-ISSN 2746-8496 8 change, and poor management of the environment, but the constantly shifting power struggles of national politics also have intervened at a local level, turning groups that coexisted peacefully into rivals (Sullivan et al., 2011: 2). These resources where form the domestic economy at the same time result in great attraction to foreign powers. Some of the primary natural resources which contribute to Sudan's GDP (gross domestic product) include: • Petroleum. Petroleum export is one of their important industries which accounts for up to 80% of their total exports. The primary Sudanese oil importers include India, Indonesia, South Korea, China, and Japan (Sawe, 2019).
• Gold. Sudan is reportedly the second-largest producer of gold in Africa and the ninth in the world. (Sudan's Gold Production Increases by 9, n.d.). Out of total annual export of $2.53 billion, the largest export was gold, worth about $1 billion. Problem is that most of the gold produced in Sudan is smuggled.
The major source of Water for Sudan is its North-flowing Nile River which is the longest river on the globe. This river is also linked to the economic bindings as it supports the fishing and agriculture of the country .
• Other Natural Resources. Sudan's mining industry has boosted because of the abundance of natural resources. These include Chromium Ore, Iron Ore, copper, Kaolin, Gypsum, Graphite, asbestos fiber and ore and Manganese. Moreover, Uranium and numerous other rare elements are also mined (Sullivan et al., 2011: 8).

Trembling Economy.
Despite being rich in all the resources in hand, the oil-rich Southern part of the country parting its ways in 2011 resulted in a declining economic trend (Dibie, 2017: 162 country's income. This had an adverse effect on trade and fiscal deficit resulting in devaluation of the currency and growing inflation (Welfare et al., 2013: 11).
Sudan's economy has been in recession since 2018, with a decline experienced across all the components of GDP due to the combined impact of COVID-19, natural disasters including floods, and intermittent shortages of key commodities like fuel.
Poverty has risen as a result and, worsened by COVID-19.
To recover out of the economic crisis, in September 2020 the Transitional Government agreed to an IMF-managed program that foresees, "the removal of fuel subsidies, the unification and liberalization of the foreign exchange rate, and increased revenue mobilization efforts to reduce the fiscal deficit and create conditions for the increased allocation of funds to priority sectors, including a joint Transitional Government/World Bank/WFP social protection program".

Social and Economic Disputes Leading to Violence.
Despite the government's push to recover, Sudan is facing grave economic crisis. Decades of negligence and poor policies of Sudan's government have pushed many Sudanese communities on the sideline without access to land and water. They are also deprived of any economic and progressive benefits out of natural resources, oil and and agriculture (Foster et al., 2010: VIII).
Like many other underdeveloped countries, where corruption is there at every level, there is no transparency in resource management. Human Development and sustainability of the resources at hand are also not give the due importance. For example: • The central government's contracts to deal with the oil companies are classified and not known to public.
• Ambiguous Policies are followed regarding the management of oil, land, and water resources.
• The evaluation of environmental impact mainly because of the oil industry, are missing. That's why the environmental degradation and its Jurnal Diplomasi Pertahanan, Volume 9, Nomor 1, 2023 E-ISSN 2746-8496 impact, has caused hostility between the oil industry and the local communities.
The following discussion analyzes the probability of violence breaking out over Sudan's oil, land, and water resources (Sullivan et al., 2011: 3). The SPA has also called for broad reforms to cease a brutal crackdown on opposition, root out corruption and favorism, and improve an economic crisis that aggravated during Bashir's 30-year leadership (Nations Online, n.d.).

Removal from Terrorist List.
Sudanese officials also began negotiating the removal of their country from the US terrorist list in Abu Dhabi (Reuters, 2020).
Despite the presence of American representatives at these high-profile conferences, American participation in Sudan has remained limited to diplomacy.

International Actors.
There are many actors involved as mentioned above. However, main international actor involved are the United State and Russia.

However, this paper focuses mainly on Russian involvement specially in Defense
Domaine and militarily.

United States and Allied Regional Actors.
According to Joe Biden, the present administration tries to separate its foreign policy toward Russia from that of the previous administration. Simultaneously, the White House is working to entice

Sudan ties as a result of the removal of the terrorist designation last year.
These two facts indicate that Biden's team saw Sudan as a battleground in the bigger war against Moscow's geopolitical rise. What remains unclear is how successful the US will be in pushing post-revolutionary Sudan to reduce its ties with Russia  to the military actors in Sudan, particularly through its regional allies, and that it is attempting to prevent Khartoum from becoming more reliant on Moscow and Beijing, both of whose influence in the country is growing.
• US Interests. The United States' principal motivation in this regard was growing concern about Russia and China's growing influence in Sudan. Indeed, it was alleged that the United States was deeply upset by

Moscow's agreement with Sudan's military leadership, and that it promised
Khartoum large-scale financial and military aid in exchange for the accord's cancellation. However, it is clear that these concerns remain; in a recent interview with a Russian news outlet, Al Burhan stated that the Russian naval base plans would be approved by the military command.
• Another aspect of the United States' engagement in the Sudanese process could be linked to China (Barber, 2020). In this regard, it was critical for Washington to make Port Sudan unusable, as it was considered by China to be a key position on its Belt and Road Initiative as one of Africa's entry ports. Russian personnel, in November 2020 (Mackinnon, 2020).
• Support for Transitional Military Council (TMC). Russia's steadfast support for Sudan's TMC in the UN Security Council demonstrates the rising relevance of its inclination with Khartoum for its economic and geopolitical objectives in Sub-Saharan Africa. Owing to the enormous importance of this corporation, Russia has endeavored to disempower the Sudanese opposition through a variety of means, including an massive disinformation movement, training of Sudanese military officers by a group of private military contractors (PMCs), and utilizing a corporation with the TMC's neighboring regional partners to overpower demonstrations . In the long term, Russia seeks to strengthen the TMC's grip on Sudan's transition process while denying charges that it has aided the TMC's repression (Harding & Burke, 2019).

Russian Interest. There is no doubt that Russia is back in Africa. Yet
Moscow's approach is based less on a grand strategic design aimed at domination than on an opportunistic and pragmatic search for influence that that is dictated, in essence, by economic imperatives. Yet, Power projection and military involvement has been observed at its core (Kalika, 2019: 14).
Jurnal Diplomasi Pertahanan, Volume 9, Nomor 1, 2023 E-ISSN 2746-8496 17 Russia, which was once a minor player in the Horn of Africa, has recently established contacts with the region's governments and is now indicating a desire to establish a foothold on the Red Sea.
• Russian Naval Port. Although Russia's backing for the TMC is motivated by a variety of geopolitical factors, its unsettled agreements with the Sudan and intentions to build a base on the Red Sea are particularly relevant. Furthermore, because in Sub-Saharan Africa, Russia is a major arms supplier, such a naval facility would be greatly beneficial not only as strong military base but geopolitically, and economically as well. It is more so in case of Sudan, because of its strategic location, resources, and inference to its neighbors' stability.
• Economic Gains. The TMC is willing to maintain Russia's significant agreements all of which have grown dramatically in recent years. These include: o A Russian mining company called M Invest was granted privileged access to Sudan's gold assets (Johnston, 2019).
o Russia wants to build an oil refinery in Sudan to boost the profitability of its oil exploration projects in South Sudan, citing the importance of Sudanese infrastructure in transferring South Sudan's oil to global markets (Plichta, 2019).
o Furthermore, it will enhance Russia's approach to goods transferred through the Suez Canal, which links the Red Sea and the Mediterranean Sea (Sidorkova, 2020). Internationally, the sanctions on Sudan by the US on the name of terrorism played negatively on the overall situation.
Bashir's fear on the US interference on domestic front further lured it away from the West.
Sudan's Military has a large backing from Russia and also trained by Russians.
All these factors combined to make Sudan fall in the lap of Russia for their survival, sovereignty, economic support, defense equipment and political stability.
However, it was played poorly at expense of Sudan's national interest.
Although at present Sudanese Government is trying to renegotiate the deals, especially Port Deal with Russia; still Russia would not back off easily. Sudan's look east FP might result in its isolation and result in further sanctions (Large, 2008: 158).
At the same time the US has to be careful as it may further push Sudan towards Russia and China.
These external and internal factors have developed an operational environment for Sudan which has invited Russia to involve Militarily in Sudan.

Conclusion.
Although Political and Ethnic issues can be considered as reasons for the existing violence in Sudan, but presence of natural resources and their misuse are also substantial contributors. The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) suggests conciliations and ways of settling number of these root issues, but putting them into action has been slow and inadequate to mitigate the complicated difficulties faced by the Sudanese. Corruption, lack of transparency in capital distribution and unsustainability in management of natural resource, might cause another civil war between north and south leading to brutal killing like in 1983, which ended in 2005 with the signing of the CPA.
However, these resources have yet to be fully realized. which is evident from the ruins of Al Shifa factory bombed by the US. Chinese economic approach to influence through mutual benefit is represented by Khartoum's Chinese-built oil refinery (Leonardi & Jalil, 2011: 291).