PEMODELAN KEBIJAKAN BANK INDONESIA DALAM MENGHADAPI ASEAN ECONOMIC COMMUNITY 2015 SEBAGAI BENTUK PERTAHANAN NIRMILITER
Abstract
Abstrak - ASEAN Economic Community memiliki empat pilar yang wajib dilaksanakan oleh setiap anggota negara ASEAN. Dinamika perekonomian global dan kondisi internal domestik yang belum cukup baik cenderung memberikan kelesuan pada perekonomian domestik. Hal tersebut menunjukkan pertahanan nirmiliter di bidang ekonomi yang menurun sehingga sistem keamanan nasional cenderung memburuk. Bank Indonesia sebagai salah satu lembaga regulator memiliki peranan penting dalam menghadapi kelesuan perekonomian. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memberikan usulan model yang komprehensif, merekomendasikan kebijakan, mengidentifikasi kondisi aktual moneter Indonesia, dan menganalisis potensi ketercapaian target moneter. Metode dalam penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan system dynamics analysis dengan menggunakan aplikasi Powersim Studio 7. Data yang digunakan adalah data sekunder time series 2011-2014 dan hasil wawancara dengan Peneliti Senior Departemen Internasional Bank Indonesia. Struktur model dinamik pada penelitian ini menggunakan alur transmisi moneter Bank Indonesia melalui jalur suku bunga dan nilai tukar. Hasil yang diperoleh dalam penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa Skenario 2 merupakan skenario yang paling tepat dan strategis yaitu penetapan suku bunga sebesar 5% dan mendorong pertumbuhan sebesar 4%. Penetapan tersebut sesuai dengan regim yang Bank Indonesia terapkan sekarang ini yaitu agar menjaga stabilitas suku bunga dan nilai tukar serta sebagai target pertumbuhan domestik sekarang ini dalam menghadapi AEC dan perekonomian global yang dinamis. Selain itu, kondisi perekonomian Indonesia saat ini sama seperti pada proses integrasi berupa Common Market dan Customs Union.
Kata Kunci: AEC, Bank Indonesia, pemodelan sistem dinamis, suku bunga, pertumbuhan ekonomi, pertahanan nirmiliter, sistem keamanan nasional.
Abstract - ASEAN Economic Community has four pillars that must be implemented by each ASEAN member countries. The dynamics of the global economy and domestic internal conditions are not good enough are likely to provide sluggishness in the domestic economy. This shows the non military defense in the economic field is decreased so that the national security system tends to deteriorate. Bank Indonesia as one of the regulatory agencies have an important role in facing the economic slump. This study aims to propose a comprehensive model, recommending policies, identifying the actual conditions of monetary Indonesia, and analyzing the potential achievement of monetary targets. The method in this study using the approach system dynamics analysis with applications Powersim Studio 7. The data used is secondary data time series 2011-2014 and interviews with Senior Researcher Department of International Bank Indonesia. The structure of the dynamic model in this study using Bank Indonesia monetary transmission channel through the interest rate channel and the exchange rate. The results obtained in this study indicate that Scenario 2 is the most appropriate scenario and strategic determination of the interest rate of 5% and a growth of 4%. Such determination in accordance with the Bank Indonesia regime to apply now this is in order to maintain the stability of interest rates and exchange rates as well as domestic growth target now in the face of AEC and dynamic global economy. In addition, the Indonesian economy is now the same as in the integration process in the form of the Common Market and the Customs Union.
Keywords: AEC, Bank of Indonesia, dynamics system modeling, interest rates, economic growth, non military defense, national security systems.
References
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Peraturan
UU Nomor 3 Tahun 2002 tentang Pertahanan Negara
Wawancara
Endang Kurnia Saputra. (2016. Departemen Internasional. Bank Indonesia.
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