PENGARUH KONFLIK DAN ANGGARAN PERTAHANAN TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI ASIA TENGGARA
Abstract
Pengaruh anggaran pertahanan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi tidak memiliki konklusi yang pasti. Keberadaan aspek lain dalam membantu menjelaskan hubungan keduanya masih dibutuhkan. Konflik, baik yang terjadi di lingkup internal maupun eksternal sebuah negara, dapat menjadi determinan yang memperjelas hubungan tersebut. Eskalasi konflik menjadi salah satu isu yang berkembang di kawasan Asia Tenggara. Isu kontemporer tersebut menjadi permasalahan yang melatarbelakangi penelitian ini. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh anggaran pertahanan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi dengan menyertakan faktor konflik dalam membantu menjelaskan hubungan keduanya di delapan negara Asia Tenggara selama periode 1986-2016. Metode kuantitatif dengan regresi linear berganda yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data panel dengan metode estimasi regresi linier berganda dalam ekonometrika, yakni Panel Dinamis Estimated Generalized Least Square (EGLS) Cross-section Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR). Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa: (1) rasio anggaran pertahanan per Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi; (2) konflik internal dan konflik eksternal berpengaruh negatif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi; dan (3) interaksi sektor pertahanan dalam menangani konflik internal dan konflik eksternal dapat memberikan pengaruh yang baik terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi.
Kata kunci: anggaran pertahanan, pertumbuhan ekonomi, konflik, panel dinamis
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